Puppies!

We are fostering 8 muts named after the Brady Bunch.

Benjamin's from the past and current

Quality, sure has changed in the last 40 years. The 2 airguns on the right are Benjamin 392s. The others are 342, 347, 312 made in 1959 and shoots great. Dont think the 392s will last as long as these others.

Abbys 19th bday

Celebrated a little late, but anyway she got her pineapple upside-down cake...

Current wx watches/advisory

620 WWUS43 KDMX 301948 WSWDMX URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA 148 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015 ...A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER WILL IMPACT PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST IOWA INTO TUESDAY... .A SIGNIFICANT STORM SYSTEM WILL BRING A VARIETY OF WINTER WEATHER ACROSS THE NORTHWEST HALF OF IOWA THIS AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY. THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHWEST IOWA THIS AFTERNOON WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW AND SLEET FARTHER TO THE SOUTHEAST. IAZ057-058-070-071-010000- /O.CAN.KDMX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-151201T0000Z/ /O.EXA.KDMX.WW.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-151201T0000Z/ AUDUBON-GUTHRIE-CASS-ADAIR- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...AUDUBON...EXIRA...GUTHRIE CENTER... PANORA...BAYARD...CASEY...ATLANTIC...GREENFIELD...STUART... ADAIR...FONTANELLE 148 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. * SHORT TERM TRENDS...SNOW AND SLEET WILL COME TO AN END THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH BRIEF PERIODS OF SNOW AND EVEN FREEZING DRIZZLE MAY BE POSSIBLE TOWARDS SUNSET. * STORM TOTAL SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS...MOST SIGNIFICANT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATIONS HAVE ENDED ALTHOUGH UP TO AN INCH OF NEW SNOW OR A TENTH OF AN INCH OF SLEET REMAIN POSSIBLE. * WINDS/VISIBILITY...EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE COMMON. * IMPACTS...THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ IAZ026-036-037-047-010400- /O.CAN.KDMX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-151202T0000Z/ /O.EXA.KDMX.WW.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-151202T0000Z/ FRANKLIN-HAMILTON-HARDIN-BOONE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...HAMPTON...WEBSTER CITY...IOWA FALLS... ELDORA...ACKLEY...BOONE 148 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY... ...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND SLEET...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY. THE WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED. * SHORT TERM TRENDS...A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS A BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. THE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET. * STORM TOTAL SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS...ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS. * WINDS/VISIBILITY...INITIALLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH TONIGHT. * IMPACTS...THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW...SLEET...OR FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. && $$ IAZ081-302100- /O.CAN.KDMX.WW.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-151201T0000Z/ ADAMS- INCLUDING THE CITY OF...CORNING 148 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION HAS ENDED. SOME ADDITIONAL MINOR RAIN...SLEET OR SNOW MAY OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING...HOWEVER LITTLE ACCUMULATIONS IS ANTICIPATED. $$ IAZ039-049-302100- /O.CAN.KDMX.WW.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-151202T0000Z/ BLACK HAWK-MARSHALL- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WATERLOO...CEDAR FALLS...MARSHALLTOWN 148 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DES MOINES HAS CANCELLED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED ABOVE FREEZING THIS AFTERNOON WITH ONLY RAIN EXPECTED. SOME MIXED PRECIPITATION MAY OCCUR LATER TONIGHT, BUT WITH ONLY MINIMAL ACCUMULATIONS. $$ IAZ004>007-015>017-023>025-033>035-044>046-010400- /O.CON.KDMX.WS.W.0005.000000T0000Z-151202T0000Z/ EMMET-KOSSUTH-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-PALO ALTO-HANCOCK-CERRO GORDO- POCAHONTAS-HUMBOLDT-WRIGHT-SAC-CALHOUN-WEBSTER-CRAWFORD-CARROLL- GREENE- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ESTHERVILLE...ALGONA...FOREST CITY... LAKE MILLS...NORTHWOOD...MANLY...EMMETSBURG...GARNER...BRITT... KANAWHA...MASON CITY...CLEAR LAKE...POCAHONTAS...LAURENS... ROLFE...FONDA...GILMORE CITY...HUMBOLDT...EAGLE GROVE...CLARION... BELMOND...SAC CITY...LAKE VIEW...ODEBOLT...WALL LAKE...SCHALLER... EARLY...ROCKWELL CITY...MANSON...LAKE CITY...POMEROY... FORT DODGE...DENISON...CARROLL...JEFFERSON 148 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY... * SHORT TERM TRENDS...SNOW IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA WITH A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN ALONG THE SOUTH AND EAST EDGES OF THE WARNING. HEAVIEST SNOW RATES OF UP TO AN INCH PER HOUR ARE EXPECTED IN FAR NORTHERN IOWA AS THE PRECIPITATION LIFT NORTHWARD THROUGH THE STATE. * STORM TOTAL SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE WARNING TO AROUND 8 INCHES IN NORTHWEST IOWA. A TENTH OR TWO OF SLEET MAY ALSO OCCUR ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE WARNING. * WINDS/VISIBILITY...EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH TONIGHT. * IMPACTS...SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATIONS WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. THE HEAVY WET SNOW WILL ALSO BE DIFFICULT TO SHOVEL AND REMOVE. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF SNOW AND ICE ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE. && $$ IAZ059-010000- /O.CON.KDMX.WW.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-151201T0000Z/ DALLAS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PERRY...WAUKEE...ADEL 148 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING... * SHORT TERM TRENDS...SNOW...SLEET AND RAIN WILL COME TO AN END ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...SOME INFREQUENT LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL OCCUR INTO THIS EVENING. * STORM TOTAL SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW OF AN INCH OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATION. * WINDS/VISIBILITY...EAST WINDS AT 10 TO 15 MPH WILL BE COMMON. * IMPACTS...SNOW AND SLEET WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW MEANS PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING. FREEZING RAIN MAY CAUSE DRIVING TO BECOME EXTREMELY DANGEROUS...SO BE PREPARED TO USE CAUTION WHEN TRAVELING. ANY REPORTS OF SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ARE MUCH APPRECIATED AND CAN BE RELAYED DIRECTLY TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE USING TWITTER HANDLE NWS DES MOINES...HASHTAG NWSDMX OR POST TO THE NWS DES MOINES FACEBOOK PAGE. && $$ IAZ027-028-038-048-010400- /O.CON.KDMX.WW.Y.0015.000000T0000Z-151202T0000Z/ BUTLER-BREMER-GRUNDY-STORY- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...PARKERSBURG...CLARKSVILLE... SHELL ROCK...GREENE...APLINGTON...ALLISON...DUMONT...WAVERLY... GRUNDY CENTER...REINBECK...CONRAD...DIKE...WELLSBURG...AMES 148 PM CST MON NOV 30 2015 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY... * SHORT TERM TRENDS...A MIXTURE OF RAIN...SLEET AND SNOW IS EXPECTED INTO THIS AFTERNOON AS A BROAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION MOVES ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. THE PRECIPITATION INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH TOWARD SUNSET. * STORM TOTAL SNOW/ICE ACCUMULATIONS...ONE TO THREE INCHES OF SNOW REMAIN POSSIBLE WITH LITTLE ADDITIONAL ICE ACCUMULATIONS. * WINDS/VISIBILITY...INITIALLY EAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH...BECOMING SOUTHWEST 10 TO 20 MPH TONIGHT. * IMPACTS...THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL LEAD TO HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW AND FREEZING RAIN WILL CAUSE TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SLIPPERY ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING. &&

Double stop sign

Dont think anyone will be driving that fast around OKC.

Kdmx wx discussion

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
940 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 919 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

CHALLENGING FORECAST REMAINS WITH PLENTY OF ISSUES TO CONTEND
WITH. RADAR MOSAIC AT 930PM CONTINUES TO SHOW A WIDESPREAD AREA
OF PRECIPITATION ALONG AND EAST OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. UP UNTIL
NOW...ALL OF THE PRECIP HAS BEEN EITHER BEEN RA OR FZRA WITH
SFC TEMPERATURES HOOVERING AROUND 32F. RECENT CALLS TO LAW
ENFORCEMENT HAVE INDICATED MAINLY WET ROADWAYS THUS FAR. THIS
MAKES SENSE AS RWIS ROAD TEMPS CONTINUE TO INDICATE READINGS
GENERALLY IN THE MID/UPPER 30S. AT THE OFFICE...WEVE NOTED THE
SAME TREND WITH WET PAVEMENT. HOWEVER...ELEVATED OBJECTS SUCH AS
TREE BRANCHES AND WIRES ARE DO APPEAR TO BE ACCRETING LIGHT
ICE...GENERALLY A COUPLE HUNDREDTHS. LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO
INDICATE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURES HOOVERING IN THE LOWER 30S...SO
MADE SOME MINOR TWEAKS TO THE FORECAST. BOTTOM LINE...EXPECT A
CONTINUATION OF LIGHT RA/FZRA...BUT WITH LITTLE IMPACT ON ROADWAYS
FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS. COULD ALSO SEE THE PRECIP
TRANSITION TO SNOW ACROSS THE NORTH AS DEEPER SATURATION OCCURS IN
THE ICE NUCLEATION ZONE...AND THE WARM LAYER ALOFT BEGINS TO COOL.

LATEST SHORT RANGE MODELS CONTINUE TO AGREE THAT THE BULK OF THE
HEAVIER PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION TOWARDS DAYBREAK
MONDAY. STILL LOOKING AT A COMBINATION OF SNOW TO THE WEST AND
NORTH...TRANSITIONING TO FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN TO THE EAST AND
SOUTH. SNOW TOTALS LOOK ON TRACK...HOWEVER A BIT CONCERNED THAT
LESS ICING WILL OCCUR AS TEMPERATURES FLATLINE IN THE LOW/MID
30S...WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY OF REINFORCING COLD AIR. AT THIS
POINT...HAVE OPTED TO LET THE ADVISORY/WARNING RIDE.

MF

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

PLENTY OF CONCERNS OVERNIGHT AS LARGE WESTERN TROF BEGINS TO EMERGE
INTO THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES.  MOISTURE TRANSPORT HAS BEGUN TO
INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH DURING THE DAY WITH BROAD AREA OF PCPN
ACROSS MO/KS LIFTING BACK NORTH INTO SOUTHERN IOWA THIS AFTERNOON.
PCPN HAS BEEN MAINLY RAIN ALTHOUGH THE NORTHWEST EDGE HAS SEEN A FEW
REPORTS OF MIXED PCPN.  THIS PCPN IS SUPPORTED BY ISENTROPIC
LIFT/WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND WILL CONTINUE/EXPAND
ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST THIS EVENING.  HOWEVER...THE BULK OF PCPN IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AFTER MIDNIGHT AS STRONG FORCING AND MOISTURE
TRANSPORT ARRIVE AHEAD OF THE SURFACE LOW AND PCPN TYPE WILL BE THE
BIGGEST ISSUE OVERNIGHT AS FREEZING LINE WILL BISECT THE FORECAST
AREA. SOME CONCERN THAT THOSE LOCATIONS THAT ARE CURRENTLY SEEING
RAIN MAY NOT REVERT TO FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING.  IT WILL BE A
FIGHT FROM DRIER AIR PUSHING IN FROM THE NORTHEAST NEAR THE SURFACE
HELPING TO KEEP READINGS AT OR BELOW FREEZING VS THE WARM ADVECTION
AND GRADUAL INCREASE OF DEWPOINTS FROM THE SOUTH. ULTIMATELY...THE
SOUTHEAST SHOULD REMAIN RAIN ALL NIGHT WHERE READINGS WILL BE ABOVE
FREEZING. FARTHER WEST AND NORTH...THERE WILL BE A BETTER TREAT
OF COOLER AIR HOLDING ON OVERNIGHT AS PCPN EXPANDS INTO THE AREA.
LOCATIONS IN WEST CENTRAL IOWA AND THEN EASTWARD ALONG THE HIGHWAY
30 TO HIGHWAY 20 CORRIDOR HAVE BEST THREAT OF SUBSTANTIAL ICING
APPROACHING WARNING CRITERIA. HIGHEST OUTPUT IS NEAR THE
NISHNABOTNA RIVER VALLEYS INTO THE WESTERN RACCOON RIVER BASINS
WHERE UP TO ONE QUARTER TO THREE TENTHS OF AN INCH OF ICING OCCUR.
THESE WILL BE COVERED BY A WARNING LATER TONIGHT INTO MONDAY.
FARTHER NORTH...THE WARM NOSE WILL NOT BE AS PRONOUNCED AND WITH
DEEPER COOL AIR...THE THREAT FOR FREEZING PCPN WILL BE MINIMIZED
WITH SNOW MUCH MORE LIKELY. HOWEVER...PCPN FARTHER NORTH WILL BE
QUITE LIGHT AS THE BULK OF FORCING AND LIFT COME ON MONDAY WHEN
THE HIGHER SNOWFALL RATES OCCUR. TEMPERATURES WILL FALL SOME THIS
EVENING AS PCPN FALLS AND TEMPERATURES DROP TOWARD THE
WETBULB...HOWEVER ONCE THINGS ARE SATURATED...TEMPERATURES WILL BE
STEADY TO SLOWLY RISING TOWARD DAYBREAK.

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ISSUED AT 400 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

CONCERNS CENTER AROUND THE STORM SYSTEM TO IMPACT THE CWA MONDAY
INTO TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER LOW CURRENTLY SPINNING ACROSS THE FOUR
CORNERS REGION TO BE CENTERED OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WITH THE
ASSOCIATED SURFACE TO TRACK INTO NW IOWA BY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON.
SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM IN PLACE MONDAY...WITH STRONG
ISENTROPIC LIFT AND INCREASING MOISTURE. DEEPER SATURATION NOTED IN
THE SOUNDINGS DURING THE DAY...WITH A WARM NOSE ALOFT PUSHING INTO
MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IOWA. THEREFORE EXPECT ANY SNOWFALL TO
BE RELEGATED TO THE FAR NORTHWESTERN CWA...WITH RAINFALL ACROSS THE
OTHER TWO THIRDS OF THE CWA. INITIALLY SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO BE
NEAR OR BELOW FREEZING ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN
CWA...WHICH WILL RESULT IN A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN BEFORE SFC
TEMPS WARM ENOUGH FOR MAINLY RAIN. SOME VERY WEAK INSTABILITY
PRESENT...SO COULD SEE SOME CONVECTIVE TENDENCIES AND BRIEF MODERATE
TO HEAVY RAINFALL. THIS COULD RESULT IN AROUND A QUARTER INCH OR
MORE OF ICE ACCUMULATION IN PORTIONS OF THE CWA ALONG THE I-80
CORRIDOR FROM DALLAS COUNTY WESTWARD. THEREFORE WILL ISSUE A WINTER
STORM WARNING FOR THAT AREA. FURTHER TO THE SOUTH AND EAST...ICE
AMOUNTS LESS FROM A LIGHT GLAZING TO MAYBE ONE TO TWO TENTHS SO WILL
GO WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. IN THE DES MOINES METRO...SOME
LIGHT FZRA IS POSSIBLE AROUND THE MORNING COMMUTE TIME...BUT SHOULD
SEE A QUICK TRANSITION TO RAIN THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS WITH WARMER
AIR MOVING IN. OF OTHER CONCERN WITH THE ICE AMOUNTS WILL BE THE
ROAD TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE ROAD TEMPS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN CWA REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING...SO COULD SEE MORE OF THE ICE
ACCUMULATION ON ELEVATED SURFACES SUCH AS TREES AND POWER LINES AND
CARS.

FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...PRECIPITATION TO SPREAD ACROSS THE CWA
MONDAY WITH MAINLY SNOW TO THE NORTHWEST. ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST...PRECIPITATION MAY BE A MIX OF FZRA OR SNOW...WITH A
CHANGE OVER TO A MIX OF FZRA/RA DEPENDING ON HOW WARM THE SFC TEMP
GETS AS THE WARMER AIR WRAPS INTO THE STATE AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW.
THIS WILL ALSO COINCIDE WITH THE DRY SLOT WRAPPING INTO THE CWA FOR
MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...SO COULD ALSO SEE A PERIOD OF
DRY WEATHER IN BETWEEN PRECIP PERIODS AS WELL. COLDER AIR THEN MOVES
IN LATER MONDAY NIGHT WITH PRECIPITATION TO TRANSITION BACK TO FZRA
AND THEN SNOW BY EARLY TUESDAY. SNOW FALL TO CONTINUE AS THE DEF
ZONE/WRAP-AROUND PRECIP AREA AND THE UPPER LOW MOVE THROUGH THE
STATE LIFTING INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. STRONGEST LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC ZONE AND RESULTING BETTER
SNOWFALL RATES TO OCCUR ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST AND FURTHER TO THE
NORTH/WEST OF THE CWA. EXPECT HEAVY SNOWFALL ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN
THIRD OF THE CWA...WITH A SHARP GRADIENT OF SNOWFALL TO THE
EAST/SOUTH WHERE MORE LIQUID PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED. WILL ISSUE A
WINTER STORM WARNING FOR SNOW FOR MUCH OF THE NORTHWEST WITH 6 TO 10
INCHES OF SNOW. FRINGE COUNTIES OF THE WARNING...WILL SEE MORE OF A
MIX OF SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION RESULTING IN THE WARNING. OTHERWISE
AREAS TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST OF THE WARNING MAY STILL SEE SOME
SMALLER AMOUNTS OF ICE...AND A CHANCE FOR SOME SNOW SO WENT WITH AN
ADVISORY IN THOSE AREAS. LIGHT SNOW TO LINGER INTO TUESDAY
AFTERNOON...AND TAPER OFF DURING THE EVENING TUESDAY. EXPECT STRATUS
TO STICK AROUND INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH UPPER RIDGING TO BUILD INTO
THE CENTRAL US FOR THE LATTER PORTION OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. THERMAL RIDGE BUILDS ALOFT AS WELL...SO EXPECT MODERATING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD. ALSO NOT A REAL COLD PUSH
WITH THE BACKSIDE OF THIS SYSTEM...SO EXPECT RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS
INTO WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY ALREADY.

&&

.AVIATION...30/00Z
ISSUED AT 603 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

EXPECT DETERIORATING AVIATION WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD.
FAIRLY WIDESPREAD AREA OF PRECIPITATION CONTINUES TO MOVE NEWD
ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA. CIGS REMAIN PRIMARILY VFR ATTM...ALTHOUGH
EXPECT A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO MVFR AND THEN IFR/LIFR ON MONDAY AS
MOISTURE CONTINUES TO INCREASE. STILL A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY REGARDING EXACT PRECIP TYPE AS TEMPERATURES CONTINUE
TO HOOVER CLOSE TO THE FREEZING MARK. EXPECT A COMBO OF RA/FZRA
TONIGHT. ON MONDAY...KFOD/KMCW SHOULD TRANSITION TO
SNOW...POSSIBLY HEAVY AT TIMES...WITH VSBYS BELOW ONE MILE AT
TIMES. KDSM/KALO/KOTM SHOULD REMAIN ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
SYSTEM WITH PRIMARILY RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXING WITH FREEZING RAIN
AT TIMES.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ADAMS-MADISON-
POLK-RINGGOLD-TAYLOR-UNION.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-
CASS-DALLAS-GUTHRIE.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR BOONE-CALHOUN-
CARROLL-CERRO GORDO-CRAWFORD-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-HAMILTON-
HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST TUESDAY FOR BLACK HAWK-
BREMER-BUTLER-GRUNDY-MARSHALL-STORY.

&&

Winter storm warning 11/30/15

...Variety Of Winter Weather As Storm Affects Iowa Late Tonight Into Tuesday...
.A Significant Storm System Is Expected To Bring A Variety Of Winter Weather Late Tonight Into Tuesday Across The Northwest Half Of The State.
...Winter Storm Warning In Effect From Midnight Tonight To 6 Pm Cst Monday...
The National Weather Service In Des Moines Has Issued A Winter Storm Warning For Freezing Rain And Snow...Which Is In Effect From Midnight Tonight To 6 Pm Cst Monday. The Winter Storm Watch Is No Longer In Effect.
* Timing And Details...A Variety Of Winter Precipitation Will Spread Into Central Iowa Tonight And Continue Into Monday Before Diminishing By Late Monday Afternoon. Freezing Rain Is Expected To Develop Over Much Of The Warning Area Later Tonight Before Quickly Changing To All Snow Monday Morning. Monday Morning Will Be The Period Of Heaviest Snow Before The Precipitation Rates Diminish Into The Afternoon. There Will Be Some Threat Of Light Freezing Rain Or Snow Monday Night And Tuesday...Although Amounts Appear Very Light By That Time.
* Storm Total Snow/ice Accumulations...Snow Accumulations Will Range From 1 To 3 Inches. Ice Accumulations Of Two To Three Tenths Of An Inch Are Expected Through Monday Morning Before A Transition To All Snow Occurs.
* Winds/visibility...East At 10 To 15 Mph.
* Impacts...Ice And Then Snow Accumulations Will Lead To Hazardous Travel Conditions...And May Especially Impact The Monday Morning Commute. The Heavy Wet Snow Will Also Be Difficult To Shovel And Remove.

KDMX wx discussion

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1211 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 545 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN IOWA HAS BEEN EXTENDED
THROUGH 9 AM THIS MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF
ADDITIONAL FZRA SHOWERS THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF THE MORNING.
IADOT REPORTS CONTINUE TO SHOW PARTIALLY ICE COVERED ROADS IN THE
SOUTH AND RECENT SPOTTER REPORTS ALSO CONFIRM SOME LOCALIZED
ICING. LATEST REGIONAL RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT THE BAND OF
PRECIPITATION MIGHT BE STARTING TO SHIFT SOUTHEASTWARD...AND IF
THIS TREND CONTINUES AND ROADS IMPROVE...THE ADVISORY MAY BE
LIFTED EARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TODAY/...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

UPPER LEVEL FLOW PATTERN HAS BEGUN AMPLIFYING THIS MORNING AS AN
ELONGATED 500MB BARBELL LOW OVER THE WESTERN CONUS BECOMES MORE
LONGITUDINALLY ORIENTED IN RESPONSE TO A SHORTWAVE WRAPPING ALONG
THE LOW`S SOUTHERN FLANK. THIS HAS ALLOWED MOISTURE AND CLOUDS TO
BEGIN STREAMING BACK INTO IOWA IN THE FORM OF A 4 TO 6 KFT CLOUD
DECK. THIS RETURNING MOISTURE HAS ALSO FUELED SCATTERED SHOWERS
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA. THE LACK OF ICE IN THE COLUMN AND SURFACE
TEMPS HOVERING BETWEEN 29 AND 32 MEANS PRECIP HAS OSCILLATED BETWEEN
RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN THROUGHOUT THE NIGHT WITH SOME ICE IMPACTS TO
ROADS BEING REPORTED BY THE IADOT. THE DRY 950-800 MB WEDGE SHOWN BY
THE 00Z OAX/DVN RAOBS APPEARS TO HAVE COMPLETELY SATURATED AS FAR
NORTH AS I-80 BY NOW BASED ON SURFACE OB VERIFICATION OF KDMX RADAR
ECHOES.

UPSTREAM RADAR TRENDS IN KANSAS AND OKLAHOMA INDICATE THAT SCATTERED
RA/FZRA SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE MORNING IF NOT
LONGER...AND HAVE MAINTAINED SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST FOR TODAY AS A RESULT. GIVEN THE OVERCAST SKIES
AND WEAK NE/E FLOW...TRENDED DOWN HIGHS FOR TODAY CLOSER TO WHAT WAS
SEEN YESTERDAY ACROSS THE CWA...VERY SIMILAR TO WHAT IS BEING
MODELED BY THE CONSRAW. THE RESULT IS HIGHS ONLY A FEW DEGREES
WARMER THAN CURRENT OBS...WHICH FOR SOUTHWEST IOWA TRANSLATES INTO
HIGHS OF 31 TO 33 DEGREES. FREEZING RAIN WILL REMAIN A BIT OF A
CONCERN THROUGHOUT THE DAY IN THESE AREAS...BUT GIVEN THE LACK OF
ANY REAL CAA AND LOW QPF AMOUNTS...ICE ACCRUAL SHOULD BE MINIMAL.
LATENT WARMING AND ALBEIT MINIMAL SOLAR INSOLATION DURING THE DAY
MAY ALSO BE ENOUGH TO TIP THE SCALES IN FAVOR OF RAIN OVER FREEZING
RAIN. WILL THUS LET THE ONGOING WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY EXPIRE AFTER
SUNRISE AND NOT REISSUE FURTHER NORTH AND WEST...BUT THIS SHOULD
NONETHELESS BE WATCHED THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

PRECIP SHOULD SPREAD NORTHWARD BY MID AFTERNOON AS DEEPENING 290-
300K ISENTROPIC ASCENT DEVELOPS OVER THE STATE AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
500 MB WAVE BEGINS TO LIFT OUT OF THE FOUR CORNERS REGION. THIS WILL
BE THE START OF OUR NEXT SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORM COVERED IN THE
LONG TERM SECTION BELOW.

.LONG TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ISSUED AT 352 AM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

PRIMARY CONCERN IN THIS PERIOD WILL OBVIOUSLY BE FROM TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY FOLLOWING THE PROGRESSION OF CURRENT ROCKIES LONG WAVE
TROUGH/CLOSED LOW. CONFIDENCE IN OVERALL PROGRESSION HAS INCREASED
SOMEWHAT...BUT SENSIBLE WEATHER DETAILS ARE STILL NOT HIGH OVERALL.
AT PERIOD ONSET THIS EVENING CURRENT SHORT WAVES DIVING INTO THE
TROUGH THROUGH CA AND JUST OFF THE SRN CA COAST WILL QUICKLY
AMPLIFY AS THEY REACH NE/KS TOWARD DAYBREAK. CURRENT REGIME WITH
LIFT AND MOISTURE CENTERED AROUND H7 OR 3KM WILL INTENSIFY AND
DEEPEN THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH H85/H7 OR 285-295K UVM INCREASING.
THIS MOISTURE AND LIFT WILL MAINLY BE BELOW -10C/3KM
HOWEVER...WITH LITTLE TO NO ICE INTRODUCTION...SO THE FREEZING
RAIN POTENTIAL PRECEDING THE CHANGE TO SNOW HAS BECOME MORE
WORRISOME. THERE COULD VERY WELL BE AT LEAST A TENTH OF AN INCH OF
ICE ACCUMS BY EARLY MON MORNING DUE TO A DEEP LAYER OF SUPERCOOLED
DROPLETS BEFORE THE FORCING DEEPENS SO HAVE MOVED THE WATCH
STARTING TIME TO 06Z RATHER THAN 12Z. TEMPS SHOULD BE JUST BELOW
FREEZING IN MANY AREAS AND IN FACT RAW MODEL SURFACE TEMP
METEOGRAMS ESSENTIALLY DEPICT NEAR FLAT LINE TRENDS INTO
TUE...WHICH CONTINUES TO MAKE SENSE WITH PLENTY OF LOW CLOUDS AND
TRUE COLD FRONT NOT PASSING THROUGH IA UNTIL TUE NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM PULLS AWAY. THUS WILL CONTINUE TO MINIMIZE THE DIURNAL
TREND STAYING TOWARD OR BEYOND THE WARM AND COOL ENDS OF MOS LOWS
AND HIGHS RESPECTIVELY. THE SUB-FREEZING DEPTH MAY APPROACH 2500FT
TONIGHT...BUT THE 0-2KM MIN TEMP IS NOT BELOW -5C. WITH PRECIP
STAYING ALL LIQUID TO START...IT WILL BE DIFFICULT TO RE-FREEZE
INTO SLEET VS WHAT WOULD OCCUR IF THE PROCESS WAS MELTING SNOW RE-
FREEZING.

BY MONDAY MORNING THE AFOREMENTIONED SHORT WAVES WILL PRODUCE A DEEP
LAYER OF KINEMATIC FORCING INTO THE MO VALLEY SUPPLEMENTED BY
WEAKER THERMODYNAMIC CONTRIBUTIONS. THERE WILL BE A PERIOD WHERE
LIFT IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE /DGZ/ IS HIGH WITH ELEVATED SNOW
RATIOS...BUT THIS WILL NOT LAST LONG. MODELS DO NOT AGREE ON THE
DETAILS...BUT ALL SUGGEST SOME FORM OF A DRY SLOT AND/OR WEDGE OF
LIMITED LIFT WILL PUSH INTO IA DURING THE DAY. THIS MAY MAKE ICE
INTRODUCTION PATCHY AND LOWER SNOW RATIOS QUITE A BIT...AND ALSO
MAKE PRECIP TYPES PROBLEMATIC. MODELS SUGGEST LOW STATIC STABILITY
DURING THIS TIME AS WELL...SO WHAT PRECIP OCCURS MAY BE MORE
SHOWERY WITH VARIED TYPES AND INTENSITIES. THE SHORT WAVE FORCING
WILL EXIT INTO THE NIGHT WITH THE DEFORMATION ZONE PRECIP LIKELY
STAYING NORTH AND WEST OF IA. DEEP MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE...BUT WITH ONLY PATCHY SUPPORTING LIFT NEAR THE CORE OF THE
UPPER LOW. THIS WILL RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF MAINLY LIGHT
SNOW ACCUMS LINGERING THROUGH THE NIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST EARLY
TUE. AS HINTED AT ABOVE...ALL THIS UNCERTAINTY HAS RESULTED IN
LEAVING THE WATCH IN PLACE UNTIL DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR.
CONSIDERED UPGRADING TO A WARNING...BUT CURRENT ICE ACCUMS ARE
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA...AROUND A TENTH OR SO OVER THE NW HALF OF
IA...AND WHILE SNOW AMOUNTS EVENTUALLY REACH THREE TO EIGHT FROM
CENTRAL TO NW IA /NW OF DES MOINES/ THEY DO NOT OCCUR WITHIN THE
TIME CRITERIA...6 INCHES IN 12HRS OR 8 IN 24HRS. THE MAIN TAKE
AWAY FROM THIS EVENT LOOKS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR TRAVEL PROBLEMS
OVER THE NW HALF OF IA STARTING LATER TONIGHT AND INTO AT LEAST
MONDAY EVENING DUE TO A PROLONGED SNOWFALL OF VARIED RATES FALLING
A TOP PRECEDING FREEZING RAIN. 0-2KM TEMPS LOOK TO HOVER BETWEEN
-5C TO 1C SO THE SNOW WILL BE HEAVY...WET AND STICKY...DIFFICULT
TO REMOVE. WINDS DO NOT LOOK SUFFICIENT TO CAUSE ANY TREE CONCERNS
HOWEVER.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST STILL LOOKS FAIRLY UNEVENTFUL WITH
GRADUALLY MODERATING TEMPERATURES LIKELY REBOUNDING BACK TO OR JUST
ABOVE NORMAL. OUR TROUBLESOME SYSTEM WILL PASS THROUGH THE GREAT
LAKES TUE OR WED WITH FAIRLY LIGHT FLOW INTO THE MIDWEST...THE
WESTERLIES WELL TO OUR NORTH. THE NEXT SEQUENCE OF A WRN TROUGH MAY
BRING SOME PRECIP INTO NEXT WEEKEND...BUT IT DOES NOT LOOK
SIGNIFICANT BEING FAIRLY PROGRESSIVE.

&&

.AVIATION...29/18Z
ISSUED AT 1208 PM CST SUN NOV 29 2015

VFR CONDITIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON
BUT MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS WILL MOVE NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL IOWA
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS SYSTEM LIFTS NORTHWARD INTO
THE FORECAST AREA. AREAS OF RA/FZRA ARE EXPECTED TO OVERSPREAD THE
STATE TONIGHT WITH WIDESPREAD IFR TO LIFR DEVELOPING AND
CONTINUING ACROSS ALL AREAS INTO MONDAY AS SYSTEM PASSES THROUGH
STATE.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT THROUGH LATE MONDAY
NIGHT FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-BOONE-CALHOUN-CARROLL-CASS-CERRO GORDO-
CRAWFORD-DALLAS-EMMET-FRANKLIN-GREENE-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-
HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-STORY-WEBSTER-
WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

&&

Xmas 2015

Tree up.

Potential winter storm for IA on Monday 11/29/15

...Winter Weather To Persist Into Early Next Week...
.A Couple Rounds Of Winter Weather Are Expected Through Early Next Week. A Mixture Of Precipitation Is Forecast In Southwest Iowa Tonight Then A More Significant System Is Expected To Bring A Variety Of Winter Weather On Monday Into Early Tuesday Across Much Of Northwest Half Of The State.
...Winter Storm Watch In Effect From Monday Morning Through Late Monday Night...
The National Weather Service In Des Moines Has Issued A Winter Storm Watch...Which Is In Effect From Monday Morning Through Late Monday Night.
* Timing...A Variety Of Winter Precipitation Is Expected To Spread Into Central Iowa On Late Sunday Night. Snow Is Expected In Northern Iowa With A Mixture Of Freezing Rain...Sleet And Snow In Central Portions Of The State. The Mixture Is Expected To Change To All Snow Across The Watch Area By Monday With The Snow Persisting Into Monday Night Before Diminishing By Early Tuesday Morning.
* Storm Total Snow/ice Accumulations...Snow Accumulations Will Range 3 To 5 Inches On The Southeast Side Of The Watch To Around
10 Inches In Far Northern Iowa. Any Ice Accumulations Will Generally Be Along The Southeast Edge Of The Watch Where One To Two Tenth Of Accumulation Will Be Possible.
* Winds/visibility...Mainly From The East At 10 To 15 Mph.
* Impacts...Snow And Ice Accumulations Will Lead To Hazardous Travel Conditions. The Heavy Wet Snow Will Also Be Difficult To Shovel And Remove.

11/26/15 Thanksgiving

Eat and run due to freezing rain.

November 23/15 snow cover

Snow cover across IA

Easy target!

Think Ill let this one pass.

Just starting to snow here in central IA

Looks like the lower levels have saturated. And now expect 8 or so hrs of snow. Heavy at times.

Thurs night NWS snow discussion.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
606 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 359 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015

SURFACE HIGH WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS MISSOURI...KEEPING CONDITIONS DRY
ACROSS IOWA OVERNIGHT. FORECAST CONCERN OVERNIGHT BECOMES WINDS AND
TEMPERATURES. WINDS REMAIN STRONG AND GUSTY ACROSS THE CWA
THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON WITH GOOD MIXING. GUSTS WILL BEGIN
DIMINISHING...AND HAVE DIMINISHED ACROSS THE SOUTH HOWEVER SUSTAINED
WINDS REMAIN NEAR OR ABOVE ADVISORY CRITERIA AND WILL KEEP ADVISORY
AS IS FOR NOW. MAY NEED TO CANCEL EARLY IF DOWNWARD TREND
CONTINUES...ESPECIALLY CLOSER TO SUNSET. HAVE DROPPED OVERNIGHT LOWS
A FEW DEGREES WITH CLEAR SKIES AND WINDS BECOMING LIGHT...ESPECIALLY
IN THE WEST. EXPECT WAA TO RETURN LATE IN THE PERIOD IN THE SOUTH
AND WEST...AND CLOUDS WILL INCREASE AFTER 06Z ACROSS CENTRAL IOWA
HELPING TO LIMIT COOLING. HOWEVER...REMAIN ON THE HIGH SIDE OF
GUIDANCE AND MAY BE TOO WARM.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ISSUED AT 359 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015

PRIMARY FOCUS THROUGH THE PERIOD IS FOCUSED ON THE STORM SYSTEM
FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT THEN THE COLD FOR THE WEEKEND.
SIGNIFICANT SHORT WAVE ENERGY WILL INTENSIFY OVER THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TONIGHT THEN RACE EAST/SOUTHEAST ON FRIDAY. LEE
SIDE CYCLOGENESIS WILL COMMENCE THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY WITH THE
LOW CENTER DRIVING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE WESTERN PLAINS WHILE AN
INVERTED TROUGH EXTENDS NORTH INTO NORTHERN MISSOURI WITH A
SECONDARY LOW DEVELOPING IN THAT REGION. INTENSE THETA-E ADVECTION
WILL COMMENCE FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH A DEEP LAYER. WHILE IT IS A
DEEP LAYER OF ADVECTION...THE PRIMARY FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM IS IN THE 850-700 MB LAYER AND USED THIS AREA OF THETA-E
ADVECTION AS A FOCUS FOR THE MOST INTENSE PRECIPITATION AREA AND
FOCUS FOR THE WINTER STORM WATCH. IN ADDITION...A STRONG REGION OF
QG FORCING WILL ARRIVE DURING THIS PERIOD PRODUCING IMPRESSIVE
VERTICAL ASCENT DUE TO BOTH KINEMATIC AND THERMODYNAMIC PROCESSES.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING ACROSS THE STATE INTO FRIDAY MORNING
WILL LEAVE A VAST AMOUNT OF DRY AIR IN PLACE BELOW 850 MB. WILL
NEED TO RELY ON PRECIPITATION LOADING BELOW THIS LAYER FOR
SATURATION IN THE LOW LEVELS AND ACCUMULATING PRECIPITATION ONSET.
GIVEN THE FORCING...THIS PROCESS SHOULD OCCUR QUICKLY NORTH OF
HIGHWAY 30 WHILE DRY AIR MAY LINGER A BIT LONGER SOUTH OF THIS
REGION. POSSIBLE PRECIPITATION DOES NOT BEGIN IN THE DES MOINES
METRO UNTIL MID TO LATE AFTERNOON.

OTHER FACTORS INCLUDE CURRENT WARM SURFACES INCLUDING ROADWAYS.
COLD WINDS TODAY LIKELY HAVE PUSHED THESE SURFACES INTO THE 30S
AND 40S. COLD TEMPERATURES AND COOLING DURING MODERATE/HEAVY SNOW
ON FRIDAY WILL QUICKLY DROP THESE TEMPERATURES THEREFORE DO NOT
EXPECT ANY GREAT REDUCTIONS IN SNOW AMOUNTS DUE TO SFC MELTING.
FARTHER SOUTH...NEAR SURFACE LAYER MAY LINGER AND MAY DELAY THE
RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION PHASE AND LIMIT SNOWFALL AMOUNTS THERE.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT THE RAIN TO SNOW TRANSITION TO OCCUR QUICKLY
WITH VERY COLD TEMPERATURES ALOFT AND NEAR SFC WETBULBS FALLING TO
NEAR FREEZING RAPIDLY. OVERALL...EXPECT A SIGNIFICANT EARLY SEASON
WINTER STORM EVENT WITH POTENTIAL FOR WIDESPREAD 6 TO 10 INCHES OF
SNOW THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. GIVEN THE FORCING AND UPPER LEVEL LAPSE
RATES ABOVE 700 MB...CANNOT DISCOUNT LOCALIZED
CONVECTION/THUNDER SNOW BUT HAVE NOT INCLUDED AT THIS TIME. SHOULD
HAVE A PERIOD OF 1 INCH PLUS SNOWFALL RATES ESPECIALLY 3 PM TO 9
PM. HAVE LEFT THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN FRINGES AS A WATCH FOR
NOW SINCE THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR A SHIFT IN EITHER DIRECTION
AND WILL LET FOLLOWING SHIFTS TO FURTHER EVALUATE. NORTHERN WINDS
OF 15 TO 25 MPH FRIDAY NIGHT CAUSE SOME AREAS OF BLOWING AND
DRIFTING OF SNOW. LIKELY TO RESULT IN TREACHEROUS TRAVEL
ESPECIALLY DUE TO FIRST EVENT OF YEAR AND EVERYONE ADJUSTING BACK
TO WINTER DRIVING CONDITIONS.

FOR WINTER HEADLINES...HAVE TWO SEGMENTS FOR NOW TRYING TO CAPTURE
TIMING. CERTAINLY MAY NEED TO MASSAGE THIS AS THE EVENT UNFOLDS.

VERY COLD CONDITIONS WILL FOLLOW SATURDAY AND COULD HAVE LOWS NEAR
ZERO SATURDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD.
TEMPERATURES SHOULD START TO RISE ABOVE FREEZING OVER THE SOUTH
SUNDAY AND ALL LOCATIONS BY MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...20/00Z
ISSUED AT 550 PM CST THU NOV 19 2015

MAIN CONCERN IS ONSET OF SNOW/RAIN. CIGS LOWER TO MVFR BY 18Z IN
AT KFOD THEN NORTHEAST TO KALO BY 21Z...THEN CRASH HARD TO
IFR/LIFR THROUGH END OF PERIOD. -RA AND -SN WILL GIVE WAY TO SN BY
00Z MOST AREAS. WINDS INCREASE FROM SOUTHEAST TO NEARLY 12KTS WITH
GUSTS 16KTS AFT 18Z EAST AND SOUTHEAST. /REV

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CASS-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-EMMET-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-
JASPER-KOSSUTH-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-
UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CERRO GORDO-DALLAS-
FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HARDIN-JASPER-MARSHALL-POLK-
POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR ADAIR-CASS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-WARREN.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 10 AM FRIDAY TO 6 AM CST SATURDAY FOR
CALHOUN-CARROLL-CRAWFORD-GREENE-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-KOSSUTH-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WRIGHT.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR EMMET-WINNEBAGO-WORTH.

&&

Friday November 20, 2015 IA snow event discussion Thursday 11/19/15

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DES MOINES IA
1146 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/...
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015

STRONG SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THE DEPARTING SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE A STRONG
WEST WIND ACROSS IOWA TODAY.  THE STRONGEST WINDS ATOP THE MIXED
LAYER PEAK BETWEEN 14Z AND 20Z THEN QUICKLY DROP OFF SO THIS WILL BE
THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS.  WINDS AT THE TOP OF THE MIXED LAYER
REACH ABOUT 43KTS AND WHILE THE BUFKIT SOUNDINGS WANT TO DEEPEN THE
MIXED LAYER TO ABOUT 750MB...I AM NOT SURE WE WILL BE MIXING THAT
DEEP BUT I DO NOT SEE A PROBLEM MIXING TO 800 MB.  THERE MAY BE A
FEW GUSTS TO AROUND 50 MPH DURING THE PERIOD OF BEST MIXING BUT THIS
SHOULDN`T LAST MORE THAN AN HOUR OR TWO.  OTHERWISE WE WILL BE QUITE
A BIT COOLER TODAY DESPITE THE SUNSHINE WE WILL SEE.  HIGHS TODAY
WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 30S NORTH TO THE MID 40S SOUTH AND THIS
WILL BE WARM COMPARED TO THE WEEKEND.  AS MENTIONED EARLIER...BY
LATE AFTERNOON WINDS WILL BEGIN TO REALLY DROP OFF.  THE ADVISORY
MAY BE RUNNING A LITTLE LONG BUT A FEW WIND GUSTS ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE NORTH WILL LIKELY LINGER INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ISSUED AT 522 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015

WITH WINDS ENTERING THE SHORT TERM REALM...MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG
TERM BECOME SNOW FRIDAY INTO EARLY SATURDAY AND COLD AFTERWARDS.

FRI THROUGH SAT MORNING...FIRST SNOWFALL OF THE SEASON IS ON TAP FOR
A GOOD MAJORITY OF THE STATE DURING THIS TIME FRAME. NOT MUCH HAS
CHANGED WITH THIS FORECAST ISSUANCE AS MODELS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD
AGREEMENT ON TIMING...FORCING...ETC. PICK YOUR FORCING
MECHANISM...AND IT WILL PLAY A FACTOR IN THIS EVENT. TAKING A LOOK
AT THE LIST...JET CIRCULATIONS ARE THE LEAST IMPACTFUL WITH ONLY
GLANCING BLOWS FROM THE 250MB EXIT REGION AT THE END OF THE EVENT
AND 500MB ENTRANCE REGION AT THE BEGINNING. ISENTROPIC LIFT THROUGH
THE SATURATED AND DGZ AREAS IS QUITE GOOD WITH 50MB OVER 50 MILES OR
LESS. THETA-E/WAA AT THE LOW AND MID LEVELS ALSO SEES A BIG PUSH
THROUGH THE EVENT WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW AHEAD OF THE WAVE. NOT TO BE
LEFT OUT...FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT IN THE MID LEVELS LINES UP WELL
WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED FORCINGS ACROSS CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
IOWA...WHILE FRONTOGENETICAL LIFT IN THE LOW LEVELS RESIDES
FURTHER SOUTH WHERE OTHER SUPPORT IS LACKING. WITHIN THE DGZ
RESULTING OMEGA VALUES...AS ONE COULD IMAGINE AT THIS
POINT...RESIDE IN THE -10 TO -15 MICROBAR/S RANGE AND WHEN COUPLED
WITH A DGZ DEPTH POSSIBLY APPROACHING 2KM...COULD EASILY RESULT IN
PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL. CURRENTLY...OVERALL
SNOWFALL TOTALS CONTINUE TO BE IN THE 4 TO 8 INCH RANGE FOR A
LARGE PORTION OF CENTRAL AND NORTHERN IOWA. ONE ITEM TO CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THAT MAY SQUASH SOME SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE DRY LOW
LEVELS THAT WILL EARLY SNOWFALL MUST FALL THROUGH/OVERCOME. WINTER
STORM WATCH REMAINS LARGELY UNCHANGED...BUT HAVE ADDED THE LAST 3
NORTHERN COUNTIES IN THE CWA WITH FORECASTED AMOUNTS STRONGLY
SUGGESTING SO.

SAT MORNING ONWARD...THE SYSTEM WILL EXIT THE REGION FAIRLY
QUICKLY...LEAVING BEHIND IT QUIET WEATHER AND THE FIRST TRULY
COLD/FRIGID TEMPERATURES OF THE SEASON. HIGHS WILL RESIDE IN THE
MID TO UPPER 20S FOR MOST THROUGH THE WEEKEND...ALONG WITH LOWS
INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE
SUNDAY MORNING. QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE FIRST HALF
OF THE WEEK AND WILL SEE TEMPS WARM BACK INTO THE 40S AND 50S WITH
SOME RETURN FLOW AS HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESIDE SE OF THE REGION.
THE NEXT ROUND OF POTENTIALLY CONSEQUENTIAL WEATHER REMAINS ON
TRACK TO PUSH INTO THE REGION THANKSGIVING DAY AND FRIDAY AS A
TROUGH DIGS INTO THE SW U.S. INDUCING SW FLOW ACROSS THE REGION.
ANY PRECIP THAT COMES OF IT WILL BE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION...19/18Z
ISSUED AT 1135 AM CST THU NOV 19 2015

CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE STRONG AND
GUSTY FROM THE WEST TO NORTHWEST THROUGH 00Z...WITH GUSTS TO 35
TO 40KTS OR HIGHER AND SUSTAINED WINDS OF 20 TO 25KT. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AFTER 00Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST
NEAR 12Z...AND WILL INCREASE AGAIN AFTER 12Z. WILL SEE INCREASING
CLOUD COVER FOR END OF PERIOD WITH RA/SN POSSIBLE AT SITES BEYOND
PERIOD.

&&

.DMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR ADAIR-ADAMS-
APPANOOSE-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CALHOUN-CARROLL-
CASS-CERRO GORDO-CLARKE-CRAWFORD-DALLAS-DAVIS-DECATUR-EMMET-
FRANKLIN-GREENE-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HANCOCK-HARDIN-HUMBOLDT-
JASPER-KOSSUTH-LUCAS-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-MONROE-PALO
ALTO-POCAHONTAS-POLK-POWESHIEK-RINGGOLD-SAC-STORY-TAMA-TAYLOR-
UNION-WAPELLO-WARREN-WAYNE-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WORTH-WRIGHT.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE FRIDAY
NIGHT FOR ADAIR-AUDUBON-BLACK HAWK-BOONE-BREMER-BUTLER-CASS-
CERRO GORDO-DALLAS-FRANKLIN-GRUNDY-GUTHRIE-HAMILTON-HARDIN-
JASPER-MADISON-MAHASKA-MARION-MARSHALL-POLK-POWESHIEK-STORY-TAMA-
WARREN-WORTH.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT
FOR CALHOUN-CARROLL-CRAWFORD-EMMET-GREENE-HANCOCK-HUMBOLDT-
KOSSUTH-PALO ALTO-POCAHONTAS-SAC-WEBSTER-WINNEBAGO-WRIGHT.

&&

Nov 11th tornado damage

The strongest tornado on the 11th was an EF2 most where in the EF0-1 range. Here are a few pics of EF0 damage 5 miles nw of Adel, IA

Iowa storms of Nov 11th 2015

As predicted a fast moving line of storms developed in western IA. First tornado of the day was nw of Avoca IA. Then a damaging tornado on the west side of Corning IA. Then 2 tornadoes one 5mi nwbof Adel and the other was a week one that hitvthe west side of the DSM airport. There where others east and south, but tomorrow will bring a clearer picture.

Severe wx event likely Wed 11/11/15

As of now conditions look good for a severe wx day this Wednesday. It's a similar setup to the November 15th 1988 tornado outbreak. And "similar" to the 11/12/05 torn outbreak. Once again clouds and limited sun will most likel mitigate strong long tracked tornadoes. However, these storms will be moving to the NE aoa 50mph. So, one needs to think well ahead. We shall see what tomorrow brings. After storms depart, very strong winds will fill in and could gust to 60mph. Lucikly the leaves are off the trees to mitigate power outages.

More Aurora 11/6-11/7/15

The lights showed up again Nov 6/7 2015.

Aurora visits Iowa again. 9th visit.

On the nights of November 2 and 3rd the Northern Lights visited Iowa. This will be the 9th time since March 16th. Glad to see the drought is over here at N41 W94.

1 of 8 auroras of 2015 in IA

http://s278.photobucket.com/user/mikethalman/media/Auroras/DSC07095.jpg.html

Lunar Eclipse

On Sunday September 27 around 20:27 central,  there will be a full lunar eclipse over the eastern half of tge U.S.

Just a quick note about aurora sightings in Iowa

There has been 8 times since March 16th of this year that the auroras have been visible in Iowa. Which is about normal. The last 5 years though there where very few.